Information and article taken from: Realtor Mag at Realtor.org | Feb. 9th, 2015 | Full article here.
Alone among big Western economies, the United States is poised for solid growth in 2015, fueling job creation and keeping home sales on an upward path. The National Association of REALTORS® forecasts that existing-home sales will reach 5.3 million, an increase of almost half a million over 2014. The national median home price will rise, too, but at a sustainable 4 percent rate, to just below $216,000.
Increasingly confident renter households will enter the home-buying market after watching rental growth rates hit a seven-year high. And households that were forced into foreclosure or a short sale during the housing crisis several years ago could begin streaming back to the market, too.
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
Forecast | |||
GDP growth | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
Existing-home sales (millions) | 4.90 | 5.30 | 5.40 |
New-home sales (units) | 440,000 | 620,000 | 700,000 |
Housing starts (units) | 1,000,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,400,000 |
Home price (median) | $ 207,600 | $ 215,900 | $ 225,300 |
Fed funds rate | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% |
30-year mortgage | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% |
Commercial | |||
Office | |||
Vacancy rate | 16.2% | 15.7% | 15.6% |
Net absorption (sq. ft.) | 35,586 | 48,841 | 55,026 |
Completions (sq. ft.) | 27,073 | 42,154 | 44,460 |
Rent growth | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% |
Industrial | |||
Vacancy rate | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% |
Net absorption (sq. ft.) | 110,652 | 102,463 | 105,780 |
Completions (sq. ft.) | 81,009 | 71,349 | 62,097 |
Rent growth | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
Retail | |||
Vacancy rate | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% |
Net absorption (sq. ft.) | 11,350 | 18,871 | 23,792 |
Completions (sq. ft.) | 7,747 | 11,711 | 15,924 |
Rent growth | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
Multifamily | |||
Vacancy rate | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
Net absorption (units) | 216,296 | 171,167 | 143,626 |
Completions (units) | 180,796 | 210,669 | 165,339 |
Rent growth | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% |
All tables use data compiled by NAR Research. Figures for 2007–2013 are actual; figures for 2014–2016 are projected. |
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Wealth Gap | |||
Household Wealth: Owners vs. Renters | |||
Owners | Renters | Difference | |
1998 | $132,100 | $4,200 | 31x |
2001 | $172,600 | $4,800 | 36x |
2004 | $184,700 | $4,000 | 46x |
2007 | $234,800 | $5,100 | 46x |
2010 | $174,500 | $5,100 | 34x |
2013 | $195,400 | $5,400 | 36x |
Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances | |||
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Steady Gains | |
(existing-home sales) | |
2009 | 3,820,000 |
2010 | 4,190,000 |
2011 | 4,260,000 |
2012 | 4,660,000 |
2013 | 5,090,000 |
2014 | 4,937,000 |
2015 | 5,295,000 |
2016 | 5,380,000 |
Source: NAR | |
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Profitability Expected | |||
Expectations over the next 12 months (percentage of firms) | |||
Less | Same | More | |
Residential Firm | 8 | 26 | 66 |
Commercial Firm | 6 | 23 | 71 |
Source: NAR | |||
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Want to Buy | |
Gen Y attitudes on home ownership | |
Home ownership is an important long-term goal | 75% |
Home ownership is an excellent investment | 73% |
Among renters, belief owning a home makes more sense | 59% |
Among renters, belief it’s difficult to get mortgage | 73% |
Source: Fannie Mae, 2013 Demand Institute Housing and Community Survey | |
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